Research
My research sits at the intersection of infectious disease epidemiology, quantitative modeling, and genomics. I develop statistical and mechanistic models to understand how infections spread and how interventions can be designed to stop them, drawing on large-scale clinical, genomic, and environmental datasets.
For a full list of publications, please see my Google Scholar profile.
Antibiotic Use and Resistance
Understanding the relationship between antibiotic use and resistance emergence is essential for designing effective stewardship interventions.
Using clinical and genomic data from the US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System (comprising approximately 1 million patients across 138 medical centers) and the Calgary Health Region (approximately 25,000 isolates), I have characterized nationwide trends in infection incidence and antimicrobial resistance, and developed statistical models to assess how antibiotic prescribing drives selection for resistance in major bacterial pathogens.
Selected publications:
- Pham TM et al. (2024). Trends in infection incidence and antimicrobial resistance in the US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System: a nationwide retrospective cohort study (2007–22). The Lancet Infectious Diseases. DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00416-X
- Pham TM et al. (2025). Antimicrobial selection for resistance in four major pathogens in the US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, 2007–2021. Preprint. DOI: 10.1101/2025.03.12.25323875
- Pham TM et al. (in preparation). Trends in incidence and resistance for five major causes of bacteremia in a Canadian metropolitan area, 2006–22.
Environmental Exposures and Infectious Disease Transmission
A growing pillar of my research investigates how environmental factors shape infectious disease dynamics. In my current position at the University of Utah, I am developing panel regression models to quantify the relationship between ambient air pollution and tuberculosis incidence using Brazil’s national TB surveillance data (2003–2024). This work integrates meteorological, air quality, and epidemiological datasets across a country with enormous geographic and socioeconomic diversity, aiming to disentangle the contribution of environmental exposures from other structural determinants of TB.
Selected publications:
- Pham TM et al. (in preparation). Ambient air pollution and tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: A nationwide panel regression study, 2003–2024.
Transmission Dynamics and Intervention Modeling
A central thread across my work is using mathematical and statistical models to inform infection prevention and control. During the COVID-19 pandemic, I developed agent-based and compartmental models that directly informed policy: an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Dutch secondary schools supported re-opening strategies for the Netherlands Ministry of Education, while statistical models quantifying the burden of hospital-acquired COVID-19 contributed to the UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). Earlier modeling work examined how self-imposed behavioral changes and government-imposed social distancing jointly shaped epidemic trajectories.
Beyond COVID-19, my PhD research focused on nosocomial transmission of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units, combining surveillance data with transmission models to quantify routes of spread, including environmental contamination after patient discharge. More recently, I have applied genomic epidemiology to distinguish local transmission from importation of SARS-CoV-2 within the National Basketball Association, in collaboration with Yale and Nebraska.
Selected publications:
- Teslya A*, Pham TM* et al. (2020). Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic. PLoS Medicine. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003166
- Pham TM et al. (2021). Interventions to control nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study. BMC Medicine. DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-02060-y
- Knight GM, Pham TM et al. (2022). The contribution of hospital-acquired infections to the COVID-19 epidemic in England. BMC Infectious Diseases. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07490-4
- Pham TM et al. (2022). Routes of transmission of VIM-positive Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the adult intensive care unit. Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control. DOI: 10.1186/s13756-022-01095-x
- Pham TM et al. (in preparation). Transmission or Importation? Using SARS-CoV-2 Genomics to Guide Infection Control Protocols in the NBA.
